Early Season Uncertainties: Unraveling the Mysteries of Matthew Liberatore, Brandon Pfaadt, and Eury Perez
As we delve into the second week of our exploration, we continue to unravel the mysteries of pitcher evaluation using Pitch Level Value (PLV) and other run expectancy metrics. This week, we shine a spotlight on three starters whose early-season performances have raised eyebrows and sparked intriguing discussions.
Matthew Liberatore: A Tale of Three True Outcomes
Liberatore, fresh off a breakout 2025 season, has continued his strong form in 2026, logging 16.0 innings and 10 strikeouts while walking just five batters. However, his early-season numbers tell a tale of struggle with the three true outcomes. With a career-worst 22.2% HR/FB rate, Liberatore has allowed four home runs, causing his FIP and xERA to skyrocket. Yet, there's a silver lining. He's managed baserunners exceptionally well, boasting a 97.8% left-on-base rate, and his stuff remains league average.
What makes Liberatore's performance particularly fascinating is his changeup. It's his best pitch, as evidenced by the .313 slug against it in-zone, despite being thrown 48.8% of the time, which is 15 points more often than league average. This pitch will be crucial in dealing with right-handed batters as his slider and curveball pairing settles in. While Liberatore's ceiling may be capped by average velocity and poor whiff rates, his floor is bolstered by a low walk rate and high chase rates, making him a reliable starter for the rebuilding Cardinals.
Brandon Pfaadt: A Kitchen Sink Approach
Pfaadt's 2026 season has been a rollercoaster, with struggles in his first two starts against Detroit and Atlanta, followed by a quality start against Philadelphia. Despite strong peripherals in the past two seasons, his run prevention has been a challenge. However, his 2.94 xERA and 3.65 PLA suggest that positive regression may be on the horizon.
Pfaadt's arsenal, described as a 'kitchen sink' approach, has been effective in limiting hard contact and generating called strikes. His sinker/cutter pairing has shown promise, but his four-seam has struggled to avoid barrels. The real challenge lies in left-handed batters, as his changeup, once strong against them, has been crushed in 2026 due to a loss of velocity and drop. To improve, Pfaadt must locate his cutter on lefties, execute his changeup for whiffs, and use his four-seam strategically.
Eury Perez: A Young Gun's Growing Pains
Perez, the youngest starter in MLB, has had a rough start to 2026, with a 6.18 FIP, a career-worst 12.7% walk rate, and a 28.6% HR/FB rate. However, his struggles have not been due to stuff, but rather execution. Perez's elite velocity and high-carry breaking balls continue to impress, but his poor command of bigger breaking ball shapes has led to a 16.7% barrel rate.
The key to Perez's success lies in finding the right times to utilize his expansive pitch arsenal. As he navigates the challenges of a full season's workload, his ability to harness his elite potential will be tested. With a young, exciting Marlins team, Perez's journey in 2026 will be a captivating one, as he strives to stay healthy and reach his full potential.
In conclusion, these three pitchers present intriguing cases of early-season uncertainties. Liberatore's three true outcomes, Pfaadt's left-handed struggles, and Perez's command issues all highlight the complexities of pitcher evaluation. As we continue to analyze their performances, we gain valuable insights into the art of pitching and the factors that contribute to success on the mound.
